Hedge Fund Consensus Picks: 10 Stocks Held by Multiple Elite Managers (Q4 2025 13Fs)

Across 11 elite hedge fund managers in the 13dwatch universe, one stock — Amazon.com Inc — appears in seven Q4 2025 Form 13F filings. Five more appear in four of the 11. The "consensus" is much narrower than the financial press implies. The 10 stocks below are the entire universe held by three or more of these managers, ranked by overlap and disclosed value.

What "hedge fund consensus picks" means here

A consensus pick is a stock held by multiple high-conviction institutional managers at the same time, disclosed in their quarterly Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 13F filings. Form 13F is required of every institutional investment manager with discretion over $100M or more in Section 13(f) securities, filed within 45 days of each calendar-quarter end. The Q4 2025 cycle closed 2025-12-31; the SEC deadline, adjusted for the weekend and Presidents' Day, fell on 2026-02-17. Q1 2026 13Fs are due 2026-05-15.

The 11 elite managers in this snapshot

The list is not the SEC's. It is 13dwatch's curated set of long-horizon, fundamental-equity managers whose 13F filings have historically attracted analyst attention. Each filing was pulled directly from SEC EDGAR; the most-recent period per filer is used.

Source: SEC EDGAR Form 13F filings, joined in institutional_holdings and aggregated by cusip. Latest 13F retained per filer; options and put/call entries excluded.

The consensus is narrower than the press claims

Across 2,302 unique stocks held by at least one elite filer at their latest period:

• One stock held by seven managers
• Five stocks held by exactly four managers
• 25 stocks held by exactly three managers
• 243 stocks held by exactly two managers
• 2,028 stocks held by only one manager

Most "hedge fund favorites" coverage rounds these tail counts up. The reality, in a strict overlap test, is that elite-manager consensus is rare. The 10 names below are the only stocks where three or more of these 11 filers all hold the same security at the same disclosed period end.

The 10 stocks

Source: 13dwatch aggregation of Q4 2025 (or latest-available) Form 13F filings, snapshot 2026-05-14. Holder count is unique filers per cusip; total disclosed value is the sum of value_usd across those filers' positions.

Five observations from the list

1. Amazon is the only universal pick. Seven of 11 elite filers hold AMZN. The next-most-held stocks tie at four holders. The Cohen-Polk-Silli "Best Ideas" paper found that the stocks where active managers display the highest conviction outperform the market by 1.6–2.1% per quarter — but their "best idea" is measured by position weight, not overlap. Amazon's spread across seven funds is breadth, not depth.

2. Berkshire's Amazon stake is vestigial. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is one of the seven Amazon holders, but the Q4 2025 filing cut the Amazon position by 77%, from roughly 0.82% of the disclosed portfolio to ~0.02%, per Seeking Alpha's Berkshire portfolio tracker. A consensus count weighted by conviction would not include Berkshire on Amazon any longer; a raw overlap count does.

3. The two largest dollar holdings — Apple and Bank of America — are Berkshire trades. Apple at $62.2B and Bank of America at $28.7B dwarf every other position on the list, but both are concentrated in a single filer (Berkshire) with two opportunistic co-holders (Point72 in both, Soros on Apple, Duquesne on BAC). Apple still represents 22.6% of Berkshire's portfolio after a ~4% Q4 trim, per TipRanks coverage of the Berkshire 13F. Treat these as Buffett positions with cameo institutional support, not collective bets.

4. Restaurant Brands International is a real activist consensus. Four of the 11 — Baupost, Duquesne, Pershing Square, Point72 — hold QSR. Pershing Square has been on the QSR cap table since the company's 2014 inception via the 3G Capital sponsorship. The other three lining up alongside the activist sponsor is the closest thing to a true four-fund alignment in this dataset.

5. The Point72 effect. Point72 Asset Management, the family office spun out of SAC Capital, holds 2,695 positions at $97.5B AUM. It appears in 8 of the 10 consensus picks. Point72's role on this list is closer to "broad institutional coverage" than "conviction overlap." Stripping Point72 from the universe would compress the consensus picture further: Amazon would still have six holders, but TSMC and Microsoft would drop from four to three, Kenvue from four to three, and several three-holder names would drop to two. The same point applies to the broader question of whose 13Fs actually carry predictive content — covered in detail in the 10 hedge fund managers whose 13Fs actually predict returns.

What this means for emerging hedge fund managers and RIAs

The standard "hedge fund favorites" trade — own what the smart money owns — is empirically weaker than it looks once you screen for genuine multi-fund overlap among managers who actually disclose conviction sizing. The five practical reads:

• Mega-cap tech overlap is structural, not predictive. Six of the 10 (Amazon, Alphabet, TSMC, Microsoft, Apple, Meta) are stocks any large discretionary book is likely to hold. Their consensus rank reflects market-cap and benchmark gravity, not high-conviction differentiation.
• Three names are the genuine signal. Restaurant Brands (4 holders, $1.56B disclosed), Brookfield (3 holders including two long-duration value shops, $3.45B), and Kenvue (4 holders, $0.11B — the only sub-$1B name on the list) are positions an alpha-seeker would actually have to dig for. These are the entries worth the cross-check against Form 4 insider activity and Schedule 13D filings.
• Cross-check with disclosure lag. Aragon, Hertzel, and Shi (2018, Journal of Financial Economics) found that hedge fund performance declines after a fund begins filing 13Fs, with return correlations rising. The Q4 2025 filings disclose positions held on 2025-12-31; by today the alpha may already be priced. Treat the list as an entity-level prior, not a trade signal.
• Run your own filer universe. Swap any of these 11 for managers you trust more, and the consensus picture moves materially. The Greenlight Capital row uses a 2023-12-31 filing — the most recent 13dwatch has on file. If you exclude filings older than 24 months, Kenvue's holder count drops from four to three.
• Look at what is conspicuously absent. No semiconductors other than TSMC. No energy. No homebuilders other than Lennar (which sits at 3 holders, just outside the top 10). For a manager seeking differentiated exposure, the gaps are as informative as the picks.

Methodology and limitations

• Source. SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings, ingested into institutional_holdings and aggregated by the canonical cusip for each issuer.
• Snapshot date. 2026-05-14T12:10:31Z. Re-running the screen tomorrow will likely show Q1 2026 13Fs from the funds with deadlines in early Q2, shifting some rows.
• Filer universe. 11 funds named above. Not the SEC's list; 13dwatch's editorial pick of long-duration, fundamental-equity managers. The list excludes some funds named in the public Anti-13F coverage (Appaloosa, Viking Global) that are present on competitor lists; review the universe before relying on the count.
• Common stock only. Put/call options and other derivatives in the 13F holdings were excluded from the overlap count.
• Position size. The article ranks by holder count first, total value second. Holder count does not capture conviction. A 0.02%-of-portfolio holding counts the same as a 22.6%-of-portfolio holding. Adjust mentally for Berkshire's Amazon stake.
• Greenlight Capital staleness. Greenlight's latest 13F in institutional_holdings is 2023-12-31. The position list should be treated as historical, not current; the Kenvue overlap depends on it.

For the live, query-able feed of every elite-manager Form 13F position plus the joined Schedule 13D, Form 4, and FINRA short interest layers, see 13dwatch or browse the research index.

Frequently asked questions

How many hedge fund managers does 13dwatch track for consensus picks?

13dwatch tracks 11 elite institutional managers in the Q4 2025 13F snapshot: Berkshire Hathaway, Point72, Pershing Square, Soros, Third Point, Lone Pine, Greenlight, Tiger Global, Elliott, Baupost, and Duquesne. The list is editorial, not regulatory.

What is a hedge fund consensus pick?

A consensus pick is a stock held by three or more elite institutional managers at the same Form 13F reporting date. In the Q4 2025 snapshot, 25 stocks meet the three-holder threshold, six meet four holders, and exactly one (Amazon.com Inc) meets seven holders.

Why is Amazon the only stock held by five or more elite hedge fund managers?

Amazon appears in seven of the 11 latest-period 13Fs. The next-most-held stocks — Alphabet, TSMC, Microsoft, Restaurant Brands, and Kenvue — each tie at four holders. The Amazon overlap reflects breadth across both value-oriented funds (Baupost, Berkshire's residual stake) and growth-oriented funds (Lone Pine, Third Point, Soros).

How current are these 13F filings?

The most-recent filings are for the period 2025-12-31, filed by the 2026-02-17 SEC deadline. Q1 2026 13Fs are due 2026-05-15. Greenlight's latest 13F in the dataset is 2023-12-31; this affects only the Kenvue entry.

Should I buy stocks from a hedge fund 13F consensus list?

13F filings disclose positions held up to 45 days earlier. Aragon, Hertzel, and Shi (2018) document that hedge fund performance declines after disclosure and return correlations rise — meaning the cloning trade is partially priced. Treat consensus picks as an entity-level prior, not an entry signal.

Where does 13dwatch get the 13F data?

Directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings. The pipeline parses each 13F into the institutional_holdings table, deduplicates by cusip per filer per period, and exposes the aggregation at /api/admin/elite-holdings-snapshot and the public live feed.

This is research, not investment advice. © Long Street Consulting LLC.